Commercial traders were heavy sellers of stock indices ahead of trade war fears. We discussed their record short position in the S&P 500 in, "Short Sale Triggered by Record S&P 500 Selling."
Discretionary COT Signals short sale in the cotton market. Note that the commercial traders' selling occurred ahead of the decline. Their trade war information is better than ours.
This crude oil trade was part of six Discretionary COT Signals that were sent for trading on 03/29/2017. We discussed this crude oil chart as well as a similar chart for the Dollar Index futures and others in, "Swing Trading Commodities with the Commitments of Traders Report."
This combination chart follows up on our March '17 posts at Equities.com.
We published a sell signal in copper futures one day after the market's high at Equities.com because the commercial traders had built up their most bearish position since 2003 as the market rallied.
The market fell more than $.20 per pound or, $5,000 in the next two weeks.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.